In the current state of regulation, which limits the volume of ARENH distributed to alternative suppliers at 100 TWh, it is likely that the ARENH ceiling will be reached at the November counter:
Market shares of alternative providers are increasing. According to the French Energy Regulatory Commission, alternative suppliers collectively delivered 30.42 TWh on June 30, 2018 in the residential market and 118.99 TWh on the non-residential market;
Market prices are leading alternative suppliers to provide themselves with priority in ARENH.
According to our estimate, the level of ARENH that will be requested next November could reach 125 TWh. If this were the case, customers would see the ARENH volume allocated to them capped at 20%.
As far as we know, the public authorities have not taken a position on whether to increase the volume of ARENH. In the event that they are in favor, there should be a legislative amendment to increase the volume of ARENH. Indeed, this one is registered in the law.
This change could theoretically find its place in the energy component of the future PACTE law, which will be discussed in Parliament in the autumn. However, for scheduling reasons, there is little chance that an increase in the ceiling, if voted, occurs in time to avoid clipping.